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  #31  
Old 09-19-2020, 04:54 AM
katsucats katsucats is offline
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Originally Posted by SouthPark View Post
Can definitely see your side of things there! Although, maybe just depends on circumstances, conditions, and a grower's own choice and/or view ------ as well as on the grower ----- eg. new grower, commercial grower, etc.
Of course growers have a choice, a choice that I might disagree with, but I'm not them. Personally, I see viruses as a man-made (i.e. man is the primary vector) problem that has the possibility to back-spread into nature and destroy native populations (this according to a scientific researcher). I also see it as a preventable problem that became very expensive due to negligence over a long time. That no man is an island, and while they might not care that they have viruses, there is always the possibility that those viruses escape (e.g. with visitors touching plants, orchid shows, insects if outside etc.). I personally believe I should leave a hobby better than before I came in.

Now, I am no moral authority, nor are my standards necessarily the objective standards by which everything is judged. But in my garden, whether a plant remains healthy is immaterial; if it has a virus, it goes in the trash, period. And if one day, I have a cultivar that wins 14 FCC/AOS awards, and the source plant gets virused, then I will destroy that so as not to let its inferior genetics pollute the gene pool. Because as long as there are healthy plants with genetic variation, the genes exist to recreate any phenotypic expression with enough trials.

But I guess this philosophy is sort of unwarranted since I was just trying to give Nlamr some basic reasons on why he might want to test, and how he could test without testing every single plant.

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Originally Posted by MJG View Post
In terms of statistical testing, a simple random test in this example would not be sufficient. You'd need a stratified design plan (ie identifying and testing differing segments of the overall population, not just random samples from the whole). Each stratum once identified would have its own calculated sample size, blah blah blah. It gets complicated. A random test of the entire population without using strata becomes a broad brush when you have pockets of orchids raised and grown differently. You can end up with an overall false sense of confidence or otherwise skewed results with a simple random test.
I was making the assumption that every orchid has equal probability, and that there are no interaction effects (but to that end, we could randomly choose orchids from different grexes and test a grex further if an orchid test positive). You're right, of course, that it's not that simple, and that we would hire statisticians to be as rigorous as possible. I guess even if it is not rigorous (and highly flawed), the general process still makes sense since testing some plants give a high level picture over testing no plants. I guess instead of calling it statistical testing, I would prescribe testing some plants periodically over testing all plants at once.
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  #32  
Old 09-19-2020, 05:17 AM
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SouthPark SouthPark is offline
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Originally Posted by katsucats View Post
Of course growers have a choice, a choice that I might disagree with, but I'm not them.
Definitely ok! Just as there are so many varieties of orchids in the world, there are so many different people, with different views.

My view of the universe or the world is ..... it doesn't last forever. As I see it, most things don't last forever - including this solar system and this galaxy.

We also know about - even if a virus does strike orchids ------ there will be those orchids that don't get affected by that particular kind of virus. So some 'evolution' or (cliche term now) ----- 'selection' can/will occur. Orchids will survive - as long as our planet is still hospitable for them (and us).

The other thing is - us humans are currently doing a 'great' job in doing nasty stuff to the body (the earth) - just like bacteria/parasite/virus does to whatever they get onto. Human activity do enough bad stuff already --- to the earth ----- to everything - including plants, animals etc. It's not 'unnatural' though. We're part of 'nature' too. The matrix movie does have a point ----- humans are like a virus/parasite. Very true. But at least many of us are good at heart.

Regular virus aren't 'bad' or 'nasty' as such ...... they don't have brains. They just do what they naturally were programmed/evolved to do.

My view is - if it's important for a grower to test for virus, and/or ensure their collection has no virus (or unlikely to), then that's quite ok. And if other growers don't want to test etc ..... also ok.

I definitely see your side too. It is a good topic actually. It's good to see the various views.

A lot of us growers - you, me, everybody here really grow beautiful orchids - and we care for them ----- genuinely. Each grower has their own way of doing things ----- we see that here and everywhere. It's all 'natural' - a part of nature.


Last edited by SouthPark; 09-19-2020 at 09:50 PM..
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  #33  
Old 09-19-2020, 06:43 AM
sam1147 sam1147 is offline
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Just a point : You may keep the right distance between your plants and keep always sterilizing your tools. BUT you can NOT control pests ,insects ,flies and such from visiting your plants.
Amazing how much we are ready to pay for our orchids and all their needs/supplements but 5$ for testing one is much too much.
BEWARE !!

Last edited by sam1147; 09-19-2020 at 07:35 AM..
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  #34  
Old 09-19-2020, 07:52 AM
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SouthPark SouthPark is offline
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Sam does have a good point there. For the outdoor or semi-outdoor orchid growers (and even some indoor ones) ------ there is certainly the chance of orchids still getting a virus ----- somehow, such as from a bug/insect or something.

And then there's timing too. Such as - if a bug bites a leaf and puts a virus in, and we do a virus test on some other leaf 10 minutes later or so. Then (assuming hypothetically the test is robust and reliable) ....... the test would come out negative ----- because the virus hasn't had enough time to get around the whole plant yet.

And is it true that some tests produce false-positives? And are there any tests that produce false negatives?

I think that if a home-grower can afford it, and has time for it etc, then definitely ------ go for it with occasional testing, and applying safe growing practices etc.

But I do agree that for outdoor growing - there's certainly chances for virus to sneak in anyway. So with 5 dollar a pop for testing ------ could use that to buy more orchids (or something else).

Very very very importantly ------ these are opinions only ------ not for swaying or influencing. Going with own instincts, and knowing the various views is certainly ok.
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