Dendrobium Tobaense - spike or keiki?

[Mochaboy]

I'm still fairly new to orchid growing, but my wife and I have built up a nice collection of 7 babies.

I bought this Dendrobium Tobaense for her for christmas, and after 4 comfortable months of growing, I happened to see this bud appear near the top of the cane



And a close up:


I'm not sure what we're seeing. Searching through google, the only reference I found to the general location of spikes was "at the axial point of the leaves" which this clearly is not.

After about a month of doing nothing - today was the first day I saw it crack open. Don't want to get my hopes up, but I was hoping a more seasoned den. tob. grower could key us in on what we're seeing

blog post HERE

Thanks in advance!